Source: Hong Kong stock decoding

The tide rising tide is the natural phenomenon of the earth. Similarly, in the capital market, the tide rising and tide are also conventional operations. There are asset categories that are ups and downs and out of assets. Naturally, there will be places to accept these funds.

"Stock God" Buffett invested in the flagship $ Berkshire-BRK.A.US $ last Friday to pass the community transaction last Friday, at a price of about 13.71 billion rupees (about 164.7 billion US dollars), to clear its Payment Company in IndiaPaytm holds 15.6 million shares holding, with a weighted average cost of about 877.29 rupees.

Buffett's first investment in SoftBank's Paytm was in September 2018, buying 2.6%of its equity for 22 billion rupees (about $ 300 million).Subsequently, when Paytm was listed in November 2021, Berkshire timely reduced its holdings of 2.2 billion rupees at the time.After this clearance, Buffett's investment or loss of 6 billion rupees at Paytm.

Berkshire's clearance is not unable to find. According to reports, this Indian payment company may face India's most severe supervision and will be affected by the recent regulatory agencies' intervention of retail loans. The relevant measures are mainly for non -bank financial companies and banks.Consumer loan.

Therefore, a capital outflow of assets is based on a rational decision. Similarly, inflowing an asset is also based on rational considerations.

In fact, Berkshire has continued to reduce its holdings or withdraw from the equity investment in recent quarters to stock up the funds.

On September 30, 2023, the cash equivalent of the cash season held by Berkshire reached 117.041 billion US dollars, which was equivalent to a Starbucks of 376.145 billion yuan, a decrease of RMB 5.213 billion in the previous quarter.The regular deposit scale reached 387.451 billion yuan, which was more than 371.832 billion yuan from three months ago.

The article published by Caihua News Agency in September this year explains the flow of Da Lu's funds -currency funds, currency and liquidity bonds, which actually means that funds are waiting for opportunities, rather than investing in longer -term investment.Products, such as long -term bonds, may be inferred that this part of the funds are looseGuoabong Investment. When it looks like an attractive investment target, these funds are likely to be quickly assembled.

So, which market is most likely to bring benefits now?Let's take a look at the macro environment first.

Global interest rate environment

Judging from its latest statement, the interest rate hike cycle of the European Union and the United Kingdom is likely to end, but the high interest rate will continue in the short term.

The Fed's interest rate hike cycle may also end before mid -to -late next year, but considering that the current inflation is still high, it takes time to stimulate the economy or takes time.

This means that by the first half of next year, the high interest rate level of mature economies in Europe and the United States will be maintained.As the high interest rate lasts longer, the greater the impact on the enterprises in these regions, the increase in interest rate hikes will bring about the shrinkage of investment and the increase in costs, and the digestion time of more than half a year to the enterprise end and the real economy will usually be passed to the enterprise end and the real economy.

It may be expected that the impact of interest rate hikes on European and American enterprises' economic activities will be accelerated in the second half of next year. The capital market (such as the stock market) generally reflects early.The stock market generally reflects the business performance of the enterprise in advance), which means that the European and American stock markets may have a recovery pressure in the first half of next year.

Today, the US dollar is still the world's most important trading currency, settlement currency, and the use of currencies. Therefore, where the US dollar funds are going, it is easier to set off a huge wave. The recent Japanese stocks are typical examples.

Caihua News Agency's data from the US Treasury Department noticed that the trend of local private funds in the United States is consistent with the trend of macroeconomics: in 2020 in 2020, in 2020, the scale of US private buying US stocks has risen significantly, and it has reached a significant increase in US stocks, and it has risen sharply, and it has risen sharply, and it has risen sharply, and it has risen sharply, and it has risen sharply, and it has risen sharply to the United States.Before the Federal Union's savings were ready to raise interest rates in early 2022, local private capital began to escape from U.S. stocks to the nearest June. Due to the ideal performance of corporate performance and the longing for interest rate hikes.By the past two months, the funds began to escape.

It is worth noting that when local private capital buys U.S. stocks in June, the cash outflow of US stocks in foreign stocks also reached the highest.However, when the funds began to leave from US stocks in the past two months, the US investment in foreign stocks returned to the positive inflow, see the figure below.

Speaking of foreign stocks, I believe that everyone will first think of Japanese stocks that are particularly outstanding this year.

Still Japanese stocks?

Since the beginning of this year, Buffett's repeated increase in holdings of Japanese stocks has greatly boosted the confidence of global funds for the Japanese stock market. A large number of international tourism has poured in, allowing Japanese stocks to see spring.

See the figure below, the point of the Nikkei 225 index (blue line) has risen sharply this year, and the P / E ratio valuation (shadow part) seems to be suitable, and it only reaches the medium level level, which may mean that there is still room for upward.

As the international financial center, the Hong Kong stock market has always been the destination of American investors who are keen to invest. During the global bull market from 2020 to 2021, American funds entering the Hong Kong stock market are also very significant, which has long been higher than Japanese stocks for a long time.However, since this year, the American investment in the Hong Kong stock market has shrunk significantly, but the investment in Japanese stocks is reverse, see the figure below.

Will the trend of US -funded buying Japanese stocks continue?I'm afraid it may not be.

See the figure below. After Buffett revealed his love for Japanese stocks in April, the US capital flowing into Japanese stocks rose sharply, but then slowed down. By September, it fell sharply.hesitate.

It should be noted that the export trade in the Japanese economy GDP accounted for most of the export trade, so the currency value is of great significance.The yen interest rate has long been at zero and negative interest rates. Thanks to the interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States, the yen has continued to be compressed relative to the currency value of the euro and the US dollar, which is conducive to its exporting enterprises.

However, it is impossible for European and American interest rate hikes to continue foreverLucknow Investment. Once the European and American interest rate cycle shifts, it will bring up the pressure of yen appreciation, which will affect the profitability of export companies.The most important thing is that for a long time in zero -rate yen, the regulatory space is also very limited and passive. It will be more vulnerable to the changes in the international interest rate market wind direction.

Where is the future of funds?

So where will the capital go?It may be a market with a lower chance of decline, such as Hong Kong stocks and A shares, one of the world's largest economies and consumer groups. Economic activities in Greater China cannot be ignored.The level of further decline may be relatively limited, and the chance of failure is relatively low.

See the figure below, the rebound of US stocks this year brought the P / Evanic valuation of the S & P, the Nasdaq Index and the DJI.us, but the A -share and Hong Kong stocks were generally the same, and the price -earnings ratio of Hong Kong stocks fell to the lowest.

Foreign capital flow should be one of the main reasons for stressing the markets of the two placesPune Stock. As shown in the figure below, the cumulative net inflow of the northbound capital (South Water) is almost the same as the cumulative net inflow of the Shanghai -Shenzhen Stock Connect (to A shares).The stock account continued to rise through the funds that the stocks entered H -shares through Hong Kong stocks). This reflects that although foreign capital goes away, domestic capital is still buying.

In addition, data from the central bank shows that compared to the expansion speed of M0 and M1, the expansion of M2 continues to accelerate. As shown in the figure below, the gap between M2 and M0 and M1 continues to pull.

M0 usually refers to the cash circulating outside the banking system; M1 usually refers to M0 and enterprise activity deposits, or reflects the current social purchasing power; M2 usually refers to M1 plus personal and enterprise deposits, reflecting consumption or expenditure potential.From the current M2 growth rate far exceeds M0 and M1, it can be seen that the scale of deposits continues to expand, which also means that consumption and expenditure potential is huge, but everyone is unwilling to use it for consumption or investment.

Therefore, from the fundamental perspective of funds, the funds that can be used for investment exist, but everyone is more willing to keep a wait -and -see attitude to see the changes in the global macroeconomic environment and the speed of economic recovery.

From another perspective, a large number of foreign outflows also means that the risk of AH shares has further declined (the fluctuations and vibrations of funds are significantly reduced), and we have analyzed above that foreign investors and powerful companies are currently analyzing.They all tend to hoard cash to wait for opportunities.From this perspective, once they look at the market opportunity, they can flexibly and quickly deploy funds to the corresponding market to earn higher returns, and markets with low valuations such as AH shares or more rebound potential.Therefore, a short period of evacuation may not be a bad thing, and may accumulate greater kinetic energy for its return.

Edit/Corrine

Source: Hong Kong stock decoded

Tides and ebbs are a natural phenomenon on Earth; Similarly, in the Capital Market, ebbs and Flows Are Also Routine. TFLOWS of Asset Course theRe Will Be Placept These FundsThen, then

Coin Holding Trends

"Stock God" Buffett Invests in Flagship $ Berkshire Hathaway-A (Brk.a.us) $ It Cleared 15.6 Million Shares by Indian Payment Company at ABOU T 13.71 Billion Rupees (US $ 164.7 Million) Through a Bulk Transaction onFriday. The Weight Average Cost Price was about 877.29 RUPEES.

Buffett FIRSTED in Paytm Backed By Softbank in September 2018, Buying 2.6% of its equity with 22 Billion Rupees (About 300 Million US DOLLARS). aytm weblic in November 2021, Berkshire Promptly Reduced its shares word 2.2 Billion Rupees atThe time. After this cleance, buffett's investment in paytm may have lost 6 Billion runes.

Berkshire's Cleaarence is not with a trace. He Recent Regulatory Agency Intervention in Retail Loans. The Relevant Measures Are Mainly Aimed At Consumer Loans from Non-BankFinancial Companies and Banks.

This, Capital Outflows From An Asset are base defional decisions; Similaly, Inflows Into An Asset Are Also Based On Rational Consides.

In fact, in rencent quarrters, Berkshire has continued to Reduce its holdings or without equity investment, hoarding capital.

AS of September 30, 2023, The Cash Equivalent of the Cash Season Held by Berkshire Has Reached US $ 117.041 Billion, Which is EQUIVALENT to the Market Value of a S Tarbucks (). SINCE This Year, The amount of cash Held by Berkshire Has Increased byUS $ 30.225 Billion, as Shown in the Chart Below.

SimiLarly, Due to the Poor Performance of the Secondary Market and the UnderValuation of the Exit from the Primary Market, Large Technology Companies that are in the Harv Est Period and Prefer Venture Capital and Venture Capital Have Also Slowed the Pace of Acquisitions and Instead Hoarded Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash CashThen, then

The One that is jobingly Called An Investment Company $ TENCENT (00700.HK) $ for Example, in the PAST, It was always all that in modern Venture Capit Al companies every year, but from the second half of 2022 to this year, The page of investment has clear slowed down, and expenses have ben expanded and counts reduced through open source and savings.

On September 30, 2023, The Book Value of Tencent's UnlistEd Investments (Including Wealth Management Products) Billion Yuan from the Previous Quarter. The amount of cash and time deposit help371,832 Billion Yuan Three Months AGO, as Shown in the Chart Below.

An Article Public Published by Caihua News Agency in September of This Year Explains the General Flow of Capital Funds, Currency Holdings, and liquid bonds a Re All Rage. This action also meting for the capital is waiting for an oppointunity.Products with loveer period of time, such as long-term bondsKanpur Investment. It may be deduced that this portion of capital is loose. , TheSe Funds Are Likely to obcumulating Quickly.

So, Which Markets Are Most Likely to Generate Revenue Right Now? Let's take a look at the macro environment first.

Global Interest Rate ENVIRONMENT

Judging from its Central Bank's Latest Statement, it is like that the interest rate, Ontinue in the short term.

The Fed's Interest Rate Hike Cycle May Also END BeFore Mid-Late Next year, but considering that carrent information is Still High, it may take time to instance St Rate Cuts to Stimulating the Economy.

This Means that by the first has been half of the next year, the high interters of mature Europan and American eConomies will de. The Impaact on Enterprises in the Regions Becomes Greater. Internet Rate Hikes Will Lead to AContraction in inventment and an increase in Costs, which are transmitted to the Enterprise Side and the real eConomy, which usually take a year to a year. or more to digest.

It may be anticipated that the impact of interest rate. F Next Year, and Capital Markets (SUCH As The Stock Market) Will General Reflect Early, at intervals ofHalf A Year to One Year (Due to the Time Differente BetWeen Actual Economic Activity and Accounting and Financial Reports, The Stock Market Will General The Business Performance of Enterprises in Advance.Pressure in the firstlard half of next year.

TODAY, the us dollar is still the most imported tracking current, settlement current, and can be used in the world. The Dollar's Capita l going and where it is more likely to care for waves? The Recent Japanese Stock Market is aTypical exmple.

CAIHUA News Agency Noticed from Data from the us Treasury department that the time of private capital in the us is in line with the macroeconomic time: IN 2020, what The economy was fully stimulated in 2020 and Internet raters bottomed out, the scale of us privatePurchase of US stocks rose sharply. Untilla the beginning of 2022, beface the feedral reserve was poised to raise interters, Local Private Capital Began to. Flee from US Stocks Untilla Recently in June, Due to Ideal Corporate Performance and Weakening Expectations of Interest Rate Hikes, Local Private Capital Has once Again Rushed Into US Stocks, and in the Last Two Months, Capital Has Begun to Flee.

It is word noting that when local private capital bought us stocks in june, US cash outflows from foreign stocks all reachest level. He time capital began to withdraw from us stocks in the last two months, us investment in foreign stocksHad resumed pose inflows, as shown in the chart below.

When it comes to find stocks, I believe Everyone will first think of japanese stocks, white have partially prominent this year.

IS It Still A Japanese Stock?

SINCE This Year, Buffett's Reperent Increase in Japan STOCK HOLDINGS HAS GRATLY BOOST GLOBAL Capital's Confidence Stock Market. A LARGE Influx of Internetal Investors Has Brought Spring to Japanese Stocks.

As you can see in the chart below, The Nikkei 225 Index (Blue Line) Has Risen Sharply This Year, While The Price-Earnings Ratio Valuation (Shaded PART) Seems to Be a PPROPRIATE and HAS Only Reached the Median Level, Which May Mean thereis Still Room for Improvement.

AS An International Financial Center, The Hong Kong Stock Market Has AlwayS Been A Keen Investment for USS Investors. 1, The US Capital Entering the Hong Kong Stock Market Was Also Remarkable, and WAS HIGHER THAN JAPANESEStocks for a long time. However, SINCE This Year, US Investment in the HONG KONG Stock Market Has Shrunk Markedly, WHILE Investment in Japan STOCKS HAS Instead S oARED. SEE the chart Below.

Will the time of us investors buying japnese stocks continue? I'm afraid it's not needssary.

As you can see in the chart below, after buffett revealed his love for japanese stocks in April, the inflow of us capital stocks rarply, BU T that after was a Slowdown, then there was a sharp decline unantil.slight recovery in october, but it seemed quite hesitant.

It should be noted that expctor. He japanese yen have ben at zero and neigatic interest rate. Thanks to interestRate Hikes in Europ and the us, the value of the yen controld aginst the Eur and the us dollar, the whild is beneficial to my export of companies.

However, The Interest Rate Hike Cycle in EUROPE and the US Cannot Last Forever. ONCE The EU-s Rate Cycle Changes, it will put presenture on the yen to appreciate, AFFECTING The Profitability of Exporting Companies.Which has ben at zero interest for a long time, has very limited Room for Control and is also very passive, so it will be more susceptible to change. he interior's interest rate market.

Where will capital go in the future?

So where will the capital go? It may be that markets with a low a Low CHANCE of Decline, Such as hong kong stocks and a shares, have one of the largest eConomies and Consumer roups in the world. Economic activity in the grater China cannott.After a Series of Declines, the value of the two Markets is alream at a low level. ELY LOW.

As Shown in the Chart Below, The Rebound in US Stocks this year to price-Earnings Ratio Valuations for S & P, The Nasdaq INDEX, and the DOW (DJI.us), But A- shares we roughly the aS hong Kong stocks,And the price-earnings ratio of hong Kong stocks fell to a minimum.

The Flow of Foreign Capital Should be one of the main reasons for the presents of the markets of the two plants. As Shown in the Chart Below, The Cumulative NET Infl OW OF NORTHBOUND CAPITAL (SOUTHWATER) Through The Shanghai and She Shenzhen Stock Exchange (to AShares Remaind Almost Flat, While Southbound Capital (Capital from A-Share Accounts Entering H Shares Through Hong Kong Stock Connect. HIS Reflects that Although Foreign Capital Has Left, Destic Capital is Still Buying.

Furthermore, Center Bank Data Shows that Compared to the Expansion Rate of M0 and M1, The Expansion of M2 Continues to accept en m2, m0, and m1 controls to widen.

M0 usually refers to careing outside of the banking system; M1 usually refers to m0 and corporate demand deposits, or Reflets Current Social Purchas Ing Power; M2 usually refers to m1 Plus Personal and Corporate DEPOSITS, Reflecting Consumption Or Spending Potential. However, as canBe seen from the current m2 grewth rate, white far exceeds m0 and m1, the size of deposits continues to expand, which also mans that there is hugnedial for consum. PTION and Expendital, but people are unwilling to spend or inves.Jaipur Stock

TheReface, Judging from the functionals of capital, there is capital that can be used for investment, but people prefer to Maintain A Wait-ATTITITITITITUDE and See He Changes in the Global Macroeconomic Environment and the Speed ​​of Economic Recovery.

From Another Perspective, The Large Outflow of Foreign Capital AlanS A FURTHER Reduction in the Risk of ah Shares l may be significantly res), Yet as we have analyzed Above, Currently Foreign Investors and Powerful Companies tend to hoardCASH to wait for Opportunities. Seen from this perspective, One THEY IDENTIFY OPPONITUNITIES in the Market, They Can Flexibly and QUICKLYLATELATE CAPITAL TO Orresponding Markets to Earn Higher Returns, While UnderValued Markets, SUCH AS AH Shares, May Have More Potential to Rebound.TheReface, a brief withdrawal is not needssarily a bad things; it may account more momentum for its reTurn.

Editor/Corrine