Securities Research Report | Industry Weekly | Transportation

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Report date: 2024

Report date: April 13, 2024

The tension in the Middle East has further intensified, and the fare price of May 1st Airlines has risen

——The transportation industry Weekly (April 2nd Week)

Review of the transportation industry this week:

1) Among the 30 CITIC-level industries, this week (April 8th-April 12th), the cumulative rose and decline in the transportation industry was -1.01%, ranking 8th;It is -2.58%.

2) In 285 CITIC three-level industry, this week (April 8th-April 12th), the cumulative rising and falling declines: highways (+1.79%), port (+0.84%), railway (-0.33%), Shipping (-0.51%), Logistics Comprehensive

(-1.93%), Express (-2.08%), Air (-2.43%), Airport (-3.11%).

3) Overseas stock market performance: On April 12, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed at 16721.69 points.

4) Changes in oil prices and exchange rates: As of April 12, the closing price of ICE's oil closing was $ 90.15/barrel, and the US dollar was closed against the offshore RMB 7.2673; from April 8th to April 12th, ICE's oil rose and declined to decline to a decline of the decline of ICE's oil.

-0.52%, the US dollar rising from offshore RMB to 0.35%.

Industry key events:

1) Panama Canal is expected to return to normal traffic in 2025

According to the shipping industry website, the Panama Canal Administration (ACP) said that the dry season is about to end, and the Panama Canal is adapting to climate conditions. Current forecasts show that stable rainfall will be ushered in in late April and will last for several continues.

In the month, if this situation continues, the Canal plans will gradually relax the transit restrictions and are expected to be completely normalized in 2025.

2) Balt's Motor Port is expected to resume normal operation at the end of May

According to the port ring report, the US Army Engineering Corps predicts that it can open a new channel to the Port leading to Baltimore, Maryland by the end of April to solve the commercial shipping that is blocked by the bridge.It is estimated that by the end of May, the port can fully restore the operation capabilities.

3) Multi -countries issued emergency warnings, do not go to Iran, Israel and other countries

With the possibility of Iran and Israel's outbreaks, countries such as Russia, India, India, and the United States have successively issued warnings that they should not go to Iran, Israel and other countries, which may face extremely high security risks.

On April 12th, the Indian Embassy in Israel released news that the tension situation in the Middle East further intensified, and the local security situation in Israel was more severe and complicated.Root strings, insist on not going out, resolutely avoid going to high -risk areas and sensitive places, effectively enhance safety awareness, overcome paralysis thoughts, strengthen safety prevention, and ensure safety.

4) May 1 Air fares rose together

According to the data provided by the flight steward, the number of domestic air ticket orders during the May 1st holiday in 2024 was year -on -year "Five in 2023

"One" increased by 21%, an increase of 41%year -on -year. In terms of domestic air tickets, the average air ticket (economy class) during the "May 1st" period in 2024 was 1040 yuan, an increase of 40%from "May 1st" in 2019.The Qingming holiday also increased by 80%.

5) The State Post Bureau released the Indian Express Development Index Report in March 2024

In March, the scale index of express delivery was 518.7, an increase of 26.9%year -on -year.From the perspective of sub -item indicators, the year -on -year growth rate of express delivery business volume is expected to be about 25.6%, and the growth rate of courier business revenue is expected to be about 16%year -on -year.In the first quarter, the year -on -year growth rate of courier business volume and business income was expected to be 27.4%and 18.4%, respectively.

6) Extreme Rabbit Release of Operation Data in the first quarter of 2024

In the 2024 Q1 Rabbit, the amount of parcels in the Southeast Asia market was 1.026 billion yuan, a year -on -year+55.3%; averaging 111 million per day, a year -on -year+53.6%.The number of parcels in the Indian market was 3.942 billion, a year -on -year+46.1%; averaging 43 million per day, a year -on -year+4.5%.The number of parcels was completed in the new market, a year -on -year+120.3%; the average daily was 705,000, a year -on -year+118%.

Industry rating: optimistic (maintenance)

Analyst: Li Dan

Practice certificate number: S03Lidan02@Agra Stock

Research Assistant: Qin Mengge

qinmengge@ q

Research Assistant: Lu Xiaoyao

luxiaoyao@

Research Assistant: Zhang Mengting

zhangmengting@

1 "Permanent spending innovation in Qingming holidays, ICE oil exceeds 90 US dollars"

2024.04.07

2 "Oil transportation logistics performance may improve significantly,

"Air Transport Fresh Season Freight Pressure" 2024.04.023 "Many listed companies release annual reports, the overall dividend willingness is increased" 2024.03.30Lucknow Wealth Management

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Industry viewpoint update:

Air: In the middle and long term, Boeing/Airbus upstream capacity is restored, and the supply side logic is reinforced.International flight