The Zhitong Finance APP was informed that OPEC OPEC, OPEC, has been lowered for three consecutive months to reduce the global oil demand growth forecast this year and next year, which made the crude oil market analysts very surprised.Slow down sharply.It is understood that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stated in its latest monthly report that global oil consumption in 2024 will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day, an increase of about 2%, which is 106,000 barrels per day than the previous forecast. It is expected that it is expectedIn 2025, the consumption will only increase by 1.6 million barrels per day.

OPEC's latest monthly report states that "mainly due to actual data, coupled with the actual data, plus the expectations of some important regions, it is slightly reduced."After the latest monthly report was released, the international crude oil price benchmark, Brent crude oil prices, hearing a sharp decline, and fell on Monday more than 2%, continuing the decline last Friday.This official report also made most crude oil futures traders began to believe that the "excess supply" view proposed by the Wall Street banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley -that is, in 2025The situation of demand has continued to weaken Brent crude oil prices.

With OPEC's three consecutive times, including the overall oil demand of various refined oils obtained by crude oil and crude oil after processing, OPEC has finally begun to abandon the strong bullish forecast that has been held this year."The decline in demand is indeed worrying, indicating that the future oil prices will continue to weaken." Peter Cardillo, an analyst from Spartan Capital, said in a statement.

OPEC confidence began to subscrib

Even after the "OPEC+" organization included in Russia and other countries, OPEC's latest oil demand is expected to be an abnormal value -higher than Wall Street Bank and some commodity trading companies expected, in Saudi Petroleum Giants -Saudi Arabia -Saudi ArabiaAmy Petroleum Company's expected high -end.This is about twice the growth rate of demand for the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has held a pessimistic position for oil demand this year.

The actions of many member states in OPEC also show that they lack confidence in the demand prospects issued by the OPEC headquarters in Vienna. Although the forecast of the organization states that there is a potential situation of favorable crude oil prices such as major supply shortages, they are still postponingRegarding the production plan for "restoring crude oil".

Under the leadership of Saudi Arabia, OPEC+, including OPEC and its allies, will gradually restore the output of 2.2 million barrels per month from December, two months later than the original plan.However, the market observers of the Wall Street Morgan Chase (JPMORGAN) and Citigroup Inc. are still in -depth, and they believe that under the circumstances of the growth rate of major oil consumer countries India and India's demand growth and the increase in supply volume in the United States, the increase in the Americas.Whether these increased production projects can continue to advance.Udabur Wealth Management

Although the price benchmark for crude oil that can most reflect the demand for oil -Brent crude oil prices have continued to be promoted by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, from the $ 90/barrel to $ 77 per barrel from the current transaction price of $ 90/barrel.It is too low to wait for some OPEC countries.And it is worth noting that the major reduction of OPEC+OPEC+supporting oil prices in OPEC and its allies has suffered a country that has not achieved production -especially the destruction of supply and demand brought about by Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia, especially Russia.A large amount of income is used to invest in Russian -Ukraine conflicts and constantly invest in cheap Russian oil into the market.

The report also shows that OPEC member states Iraq have failed to make positive progress in the share of production reduction since the beginning of the year, and still continue to exceed its agreed quota.

The report shows that in September, Iraq reduced the daily output of about 155,000 barrels to 4.112 million barrels, close to its 4 million barrels of production reduction targets, and the master remained above this goal -showing that Iraq followed Russia, in the Russian pace, in the Russian pace, in the Russian pace, in the Russian pace, in the Russian pace, in the Russian pace, in the Russia, in the Russian pace, in the Russian pace, in the Russian pace, in the Russian pace, in the Russian pace, in the Russian pace, in the Russian pace.The additional production of commitments has not made any progress in making up for excess production.But an Iraqi official said on weekends that the country's output is lower than the quota.

Kazakhstan increased daily output by 75,000 barrels to 1.545 million barrels, which violated its commitment to reduce production.Russia continues to violate the commitment to reduce productionLucknow Stock. It decreases at only 28,000 barrels per day per day, but it is still much higher than the upper limit of its quota display.Bangalore Stock Exchange

It is expected that OPEC+will make a formal decision on the production planned in December in the next few weeks. Wall Street Travels generally expect OPEC to continue to implement production reduction to support oil prices, instead of recovering production in the trend.The alliance will hold a meeting on December 1 and review the output policy of 2025.

The pessimistic expectation of "overcurrent" is about to come true?

Last week, the price of crude oil -Brent crude oil rose significantly to more than $ 80 per barrel, mainly because the tension between Israel and Iran again heated up again.However, due to the negative concerns of "excess supply" since then, the latest report of OPEC has strengthened the expectations of traders to supply excess supply of the oil market. The price of Brent crude oil has continued to weak recently. At present, it has fallen to every every time.The barrel is nearly $ 77.

Before OPEC announced the latest monthly report, EIA's latest data showed that the US crude oil inventory from October 4 from October 4 accidentally increased by 5.8 million barrels, exceeding the expected 2 million barrels.The negative expectations of "overcontracting".

This expectation of the oil market completely shifted to "overcontracting" is the core logic of most investment institutions to see the price trend of Brent crude oil in 2025.It may soon enter the pessimistic range of $ 60, and the large commodity giant Tocker Group, which has long seen crude oil, rarely agree with the "overcurrent" view.

The Research Report released by Wall Street Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs recently showed that it is expected that the entire oil market may shift from a slightly tense supply and demand balance to potential excess after the end of 2024 or early 2025.The transaction price may fall to this phase of this stage of $ 61 per barrel.

EXANANE BNP Paribas, the securities department of the Bank of Paris France, reduced the stock rating of Ex Son Mobil from "neutral" to "reduction", and the target price was set to $ 105 (comparedAt $ 123.610), this long -term leader of this American oil and gas industry has rarely been "reduced" or "selling" the most negative rating.Holding the "rating, it means that the price of the stock may further decline due to weak crude oil prices.

Lucas Herman from Bank of Paris analysts from Paris, France also reduced the British Petroleum Corporation (BP.US) and Spain's largest oil company REPSOL (repyy.us) stock rating from "Running to the broader market" to "neutral" ratingThe reason is that the production capacity of "OPEC+" is about to face a serious excess, indicating that this negative prospect is "hanging on the entire oil industry like a Damocles Sword", and it means that these three traditional energy companies are facing refining profits.The risk of extremely weak prospects.

Analyst Herman said that given the demand and supply of the oil market, the global crude oil benchmark -Brent crude oil prices may soon fall to $ 60/barrel. Therefore, "we suspect that investors' interest in the oil industry investment will beWill be challenged to a greater extent.